⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:

This tool provides historical analysis for educational purposes only. It is NOT personalized financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not predict future results. The "4% rule" is a simplified guideline that may not suit your situation.

Always consult qualified professionals before making financial decisions. By using this site, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Four Percent Rule Analyzer

Explore retirement withdrawal strategies using 93 years of historical market data. Test different approaches with realistic monthly withdrawals to see what happened during past market crashes and booms since 1928.

What is the 4% Rule?

A guideline suggesting withdrawing 4% of retirement savings in year one, then adjusting for inflation each year. Historical analysis shows this approach's performance over 30-year periods.

Quick Example

$1,000,000 saved → $40,000/year (4%) → Adjusted for inflation annually

This tool shows how that strategy performed in historical market conditions.
New to the 4% Rule? Start Here!

Get personalized results in 3 simple steps

Failure Rate Analysis

Analyze how different withdrawal rates (3%-10%) performed across 769 historical 30-year periods. Review when higher withdrawal rates led to portfolio depletion.

Analyze Failure Rates
Asset Allocation Impact

Examine how stock/bond allocation (0%-100% stocks) affected historical portfolio outcomes. Review the trade-offs between growth potential and stability.

Optimize Allocation
Break-Even Analysis

Calculate the maximum withdrawal rate that would have depleted portfolios exactly at 30 years for each historical period. Understand the historical context behind the 4% guideline.

Find Break-Even
Retirement Length Impact

Examine how retirement length (25-50 years) affected withdrawal strategy outcomes historically. Review scenarios for early retirement or extended longevity.

Analyze Time Impact

Key Historical Findings

100%

4% Rule Success Rate
Across all 769 historical periods

4.30%

Break-even Rate (Monthly)
Worst period: 1929-1958

60/40

Historically Effective Allocation
Stocks/Bonds for balanced risk

93

Years of Data
1928-2021 market history

See How It's Calculated

Quick Portfolio Simulator

$
%
1-10%, step 0.5%
%
0-100%, step 10%
New to Retirement Planning?

Start here: Our analysis covers 93 years of market history to examine how withdrawal strategies performed historically.

Learn the Basics Start with Failure Analysis
Key Features:
  • 769 different 30-year retirement periods tested (monthly precision)
  • 1,128 months of real market data (1928-2021)
  • Realistic monthly withdrawals vs. annual assumptions
  • Includes major crashes (1929, 2008) and booms
  • Beginner-friendly explanations