⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:

This tool provides historical analysis for educational purposes only. It is NOT personalized financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not predict future results. The "4% rule" is a simplified guideline that may not suit your situation.

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Four Percent Rule Analyzer

How much can you spend each year in retirement without running out of money? This site explores that question with 93 years of real market history — test a withdrawal strategy and see what would have happened through every crash and boom since 1928.

What is the 4% Rule?

A guideline for making retirement savings last: withdraw 4% of your savings in year one, then adjust that amount for inflation each year. Historically, that pace let a portfolio survive a 30-year retirement in almost every market era — this tool shows when it worked and when it nearly didn't.

Quick Example

$1,000,000 saved → $40,000/year (4%) → Adjusted for inflation annually

This tool shows how that strategy performed in historical market conditions.
New to the 4% Rule? Start Here!

Get personalized results in 3 simple steps

Failure Rate Analysis

Analyze how different withdrawal rates (3%-10%) performed across 769 historical 30-year periods. Review when higher withdrawal rates led to portfolio depletion.

Analyze Failure Rates
Asset Allocation Impact

Examine how stock/bond allocation (0%-100% stocks) affected historical portfolio outcomes. Review the trade-offs between growth potential and stability.

Optimize Allocation
Break-Even Analysis

Calculate the maximum withdrawal rate that would have depleted portfolios exactly at 30 years for each historical period. Understand the historical context behind the 4% guideline.

Find Break-Even
Retirement Length Impact

Examine how retirement length (25-50 years) affected withdrawal strategy outcomes historically. Review scenarios for early retirement or extended longevity.

Analyze Time Impact

Key Historical Findings

96%

4% Rule Success Rate
Inflation-adjusted, 60/40 (100% in fixed dollars)

3.83%

Worst-case Sustainable Rate
Inflation-adjusted; Dec 1965 retiree

60/40

Historically Effective Allocation
Stocks/Bonds for balanced risk

93

Years of Data
1928-2021 market history

See How It's Calculated

Quick Portfolio Simulator

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%
any rate 0.1-20%
%
any allocation 0-100%
Off = fixed dollar withdrawals, which look safer because spending shrinks in real terms over time.
New to Retirement Planning?

Start here: Our analysis covers 93 years of market history to examine how withdrawal strategies performed historically.

Learn the Basics Start with Failure Analysis
Key Features:
  • 769 different 30-year retirement periods tested (monthly precision)
  • 1,128 months of real market data (1928-2021)
  • Realistic monthly withdrawals vs. annual assumptions
  • Includes major crashes (1929, 2008) and booms
  • Beginner-friendly explanations