⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:

This tool provides historical analysis for educational purposes only. It is NOT personalized financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not predict future results. The "4% rule" is a simplified guideline that may not suit your situation.

Always consult qualified professionals before making financial decisions. By using this site, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Contributions & Withdrawals

Start with a balance and add or remove a fixed dollar amount every month. We replay your plan through every real 30-year window in the data (1928–2021) and show the worst, median, and best outcomes — no assumed return rate.

Educational Tool Only

Not Investment Advice: Results are historical backtests for education only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor.

Parameters
$
$
%
Off = the same dollar figure every month. (Separate from the chart's nominal/real display toggle below, which only changes the units shown.)
How to read this

Withdraw: a trial fails if the balance hits $0 before the end. The failure rate counts how many historical windows ran out.

Contribute: you only add money, so a trial never runs out — the range shows how different market histories grow the same plan.

Real (start-year $): deflates each balance by the actual inflation of that window, so you see purchasing power in the dollars of the year you started.